George Ruiz
115 posts
Oct 02, 2006
11:00 PM
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Do you believe the 80-20 rule that Tony talks about in his writing "HOW TO BREED BETTER ROLLERS" would or should apply to unflown birds ?
thanks George
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
733 posts
Oct 02, 2006
11:12 PM
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Don't have the book, so I couldn't say.
What is the 80/20 percent?
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fhtfire
578 posts
Oct 03, 2006
9:02 AM
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Brian,
The 80-20 rule is the rule that a lot of businesses use and it seems to be a phenomenon that these figures come up in just about everything. Anyway..20% of you birds will be good enough to help you move forward and 80% will not make the cut...this rule in the business world is pretty consistant...a company will have a lot of products...of those products only 20% will be very popular and make you money..the other 80% will have to be revamped. same with TV shows...it is pretty close to 20% of the new shows will be sindicated and 80% will bite the dust....pick up trucks and SUV'S are about 20% of GM's total models and that 20% is most of there sales....it just seems that this rule is everywhere...when it has to do with making the cut or moving forward...of course they will not be exact..but they seem to be pretty close.
rock and ROLL
Paul
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
736 posts
Oct 03, 2006
12:26 PM
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If that is the case then I don't see where an 80/20 rule would apply to unflown birds. It's unflown. Mate it up, breed from it and fly out the young. Doesn't get much more simple than that.
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J_Star
613 posts
Oct 03, 2006
12:45 PM
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Then from those offspring use to 80/20 rule and go from there.
Jay
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Bluesman
Pigeon Fancier
812 posts
Oct 03, 2006
12:48 PM
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It can apply to unflown birds. It just means whatever you breed out of unflown birds that 20% will be the best of whatever you bred from.From that 20% you have to choose what you like and move on to the next level and do it all over again.David
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fhtfire
579 posts
Oct 03, 2006
12:52 PM
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The 80/20 rule in Tonys book...I believe...is talking about birds that you are flying out...or the offspring of your breeder pairs...of course you can't get the 80/20 rule on your breeders...but check every bird you produce...if you produce 100 birds..it may surprise you that you will get about 20 birds that are top notch kit birds and ther rest will be average to mediocre...
rock and ROLL
Paul
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Bluesman
Pigeon Fancier
813 posts
Oct 03, 2006
12:53 PM
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Jay.Looks like we were thinking along the same lines.I just have a problem trying to explain what I mean so it takes me longer.LOL.David
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Velo99
627 posts
Oct 03, 2006
2:34 PM
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It would seem to me after three or four rounds the 80-20 SHOULD change to a more even ratio like 60-40 or even 50-50. After a while it should reciprocate to 20-80.It seems to me,not long ago we discussed the actual ratio of good birds we produce. I do think it was higher than 80-20.
If I bred seven or eight rounds according to the 80-20 rule and my ratio didn`t change,I would be looking for different birds.
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If they don`t kit,they don`t score.
Color don`t roll and peds don`t fly.
It`s a comp thing,understand?
V99
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fhtfire
582 posts
Oct 03, 2006
3:54 PM
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Kenny,
I am not talking about ratios..that are good kit birds..I am talking about real good birds...the ones that are way above the rest. I know that most of us have higher percentages of "Good" birds or non-cullable I should say...but the 20% are birds that make you go OOOOHHH YAHHHHHHHH! Of course there are exceptions to the rule...if you have a click pair...or if you are a company that is marketing one product and it takes off.....but overall....I only breed a whole handfull of birds that knock your socks off....and the rest are "real good"...and then you have a very small handfull of retarded birds....most of us get a majority of just "good birds"....the 20% are the ones that are telling you possible stock bird...you know what I mean.
rock and ROLL
Paul
Last Edited by fhtfire on Oct 03, 2006 3:55 PM
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Velo99
629 posts
Oct 03, 2006
4:58 PM
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Paul,
If you use the 80-20, getting the cream birds. You should end up with click pairs pretty quickly.I believe this is what most fanciers are looking for. Once you have the click pairs the ratio should change for the better. Then your personal standard goes up and you are back to the 80-20 with higher standards. So the 80-20 is relative to the depth of the project. Luck will also play a part in the selection process.
Then there is the need to tighten the gene pool.Does this compel us to put a daughter or grandson on a click pair? Then your standard is in jeopardy as you go back to the 80-20. Although the inbred mating should produce as well as the original. I am just pointing out the relativity of the 80-20. By getting a grasp on the stats,one can better understand how to progress.
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If they don`t kit,they don`t score.
Color don`t roll and peds don`t fly.
It`s a comp thing,understand?
V99
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
738 posts
Oct 03, 2006
5:08 PM
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I guess I am at a loss here.
How does an 80/20 rule help a person breed better rollers?
How does an 80/20 rule place a value on a flown or unflown roller?
How does an 80/20 rule apply to young raised out a non flown or flown bird?
How does an 80/20 rule help create a competitive kit?
How does 80/20 have anything to do with rollers to begin with?
We can play the ratio association game till we are out of words to type, in the end, if a person is paying attention to their birds, they will have the same results if they never heard of an 80/20 rule. Speaking of that, what is ruling about 80/20? Makes no sense to me.
Yah, you like approximately 20 percent of the birds you raised. Does some ruling make this a worthy discovery?
Breed um, fly um, make decisions. If you are busy trying to assimilate the ratios of your rollers and how they apply to some percentage, the guy down the street who is simply paying attention to his birds following his instincts based on what this kit birds show him, will be flying much better kits of rollers. I guarantee it!!!
All a person has to do is pay attention to their rollers and develop instincts for choosing the right ones, not necessarily the "best" ones to balance out their stock loft. When a person learns how to balance their stock, they will raise more birds that meet their requirements. A percentage rule ain't gonna do that for ya.
Brian.
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Velo99
630 posts
Oct 03, 2006
5:10 PM
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baseline figure.
If one isn`t getting 80-20 minimum there could be a problem or there could be a bunch of bad asses hiding in your kitboxes.
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If they don`t kit,they don`t score.
Color don`t roll and peds don`t fly.
It`s a comp thing,understand?
V99
Last Edited by Velo99 on Oct 03, 2006 5:14 PM
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Velo99
631 posts
Oct 03, 2006
5:16 PM
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I edited the previous post
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If they don`t kit,they don`t score.
Color don`t roll and peds don`t fly.
It`s a comp thing,understand?
V99
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fhtfire
584 posts
Oct 03, 2006
9:00 PM
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Brian,
LOL!!! You are looking way to deep into this...the quote in Tony's book is for a new flier...to give them a ball park when you start to get on the right track...It really is not set in stone it just puts into perspective that you are not going to breed all good birds when you start in rollers....and if you have crap..then you will not even come close to the 80/20 thing.....it is just a little something to help show that you are not going to breed 50 champions..if you do..then you are a lucky sob...
Brian...some of us our way above the 80/20 thing and do like you said..fly um and see what you get and try and get the pairs that breed the highest % of good birds...it is just a thing for the beginers....kind of like the tbs per bird rule...does it work for all...no..but it is a baseline on feeding...do I use it now..not..but did I when I started..yes...I would start with 1tbs per bird and then go up and down from there....Now I just go by feel and gut instinct...All the 80/20 rule is ....is a baseline to let you know that you are on the right track in breeding and not to expect a loft full of superstars when breeding rollers...just like a business does not think everything they do is going to be a hit...hope that makes sense...it is really meaningless to a seasoned fancier who knows what they are doing. I have pairs that blow that rule right out of the water.
rock and ROLL
Paul
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fhtfire
585 posts
Oct 03, 2006
9:05 PM
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Kenny,
You are right...if you are new and use the 80/20 rule it will assist you in moving your program forward..in no time you will have some good birds to try in the breeder loft..Blues man summed it up right...take that top 20% and then pick the ones that are the best and see what you get...and then do the 80/20 again and again..and you should in time...have better birds then the 80/20 and your standards should go up...if your standards go up then your 80/20 from the first year will be a totally different 80/20 the following years....You are getting the meaning of the 80/20 rule....
rock and ROLL
Paul Fullerton
Last Edited by fhtfire on Oct 03, 2006 9:07 PM
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
740 posts
Oct 03, 2006
9:33 PM
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I can agree that telling a new fancier to expect a very low percentage of good rollers would be a truthful offering. Depending on what he is starting with, he might breed a lot, or just a few, the percentage or numerical value should have no relevance. If he breeds 100 and with some mentoring, is satisfied with only five or ten of them, then he should work with those that satisfy him without having to think about the percentage produced.
I'm not thinking too much into it. I'm trying to imply a sense of logical reasoning...simple reality.
Again, mate them up, breed a bunch, fly them out and find out where the satisfactory performance comes from, then work around those. A new flyer should be focused on getting used to the in's and out's of rollers, how to keep records, how to manage his birds and how to make decisions in regards to which birds to breed from, not whether or not he raised 20 percent good ones or not which could graciously institute a sense of failure should the person raise less than 20 percent.
A loft full of the 20 percentile will not yeild absolute certainty. If it did, quality rollers would be a dime a dozen. It is a given that even the most successful flyers are lucky to raise 50 percent that are suitable for what they desire.
Brian.
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birdman
212 posts
Oct 03, 2006
10:01 PM
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Without getting hung up on percentages, I think it's far more important, especially for the new fancier, to be able to identify what a quality roller looks like in the air.
Once quality is recognized, that should form the baseline regardless of any percentages, which may be higher or lower than the 80/20 ratio. Just my 2cents worth.
Russ
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dave
163 posts
Oct 03, 2006
10:26 PM
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Here is my input into this. This is my second year in raising rollers. Don't pay attention to the %. Pay more attention to what you are doing. Sometimes it is not the birds fault but our own fault. Ask a ton of questions from more experience guys and try all the different methods of training out. Last year I bred 100 and I only got 4 birds that I consider stock worthy but wanted to fly them until 2 years old. 3 got eaten and I finally stocked one after the WC because his father was not filling all the eggs anymore. I hope to get 4 that will be as good this year.
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Shaun
374 posts
Oct 03, 2006
11:52 PM
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In England, the 80/20 rule is well-established in the business world and suchlike, but I've never heard anyone specifically relate it to rollers. However, when I first started out 18 months ago, my first rollers were poor, so I entered into correspondence with Graham Dexter, author of 'Winners with Spinners'. In my naivety, I assumed you just went out and bought a kit of good rollers. You might like to read what Graham said when I learned that it wasn't so easy:
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"Dear Shaun, just a few points.......every season the top fanciers probably breed about 50 - 100 rollers. If they are skilled and have good stock, about 8 or 9 will be outstanding performers, the rest will be average to poor rollers. The average ones may be held over to see if they improve, and they will pad out the kits if necessary, a lot will be culled within the first 7 or 8 months. The ones with obvious faults (of which there will be many) like not kitting properly, rolling sloppily, rolling down, rolling erratically as they go up or come down, excessively deep rollers that get tired early and land, birds that are lazy and land on the roof instead of flying, mad tumblers that roll short and frequent and distract the kit, and the ones that get to 18 months old and then develop any of the above faults, will be disposed of in the correct manner by reputable fanciers.....however as you can see the majority of rollers bred are of poor quality.......guess where some of these go!
(He meant to the likes of novices like me, there!)
So although in theory you are right, no one pairs up birds which they dont think are worthy, and yes some fanciers offer birds for sale because they want to see their family propogated, and some will be downsizing, and some will be giving up..........and the rest .......???
So the percentage chance of buying a good roller is unfortunately rather low, simply because there are not that many really good ones about. I hope what you have are some really good ones that you will be happy with, and that you may find others that suit you readily and easily, all I'm saying is the percentages are against you."
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Since that correspondence with Graham, some 18 months down the line, I've bred a total of 80 young birds. I obtained good stock, yet the faults which Graham describes, I've regularly seen. The low percentage of outstanding birds is also in keeping with his ballpark figures.
Cheers.
Shaun
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trevsta65
25 posts
Oct 04, 2006
1:21 AM
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i am currently breeding from two pair of birds that i didnt see in the sky one pair that i purchased. and the other pair the guy loaned to me . having not seen the birds fly i am trusting his judgement he a real close relative by marriage not that matters lol. he chose the birds that would give me some quality birds to work from.as only being new to the the hoby do you think i have done the wrong thing by trusting his judgement i have bred 10 birds so far and as yet they are to young to roll i have 6 in the kit box and im waiting patiently.cheers trev
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
788 posts
Oct 04, 2006
7:42 AM
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Hey George, I am glad someone has read my publication! LOL
A meaningful quote from it is: “The actual percentage is not what is important, only that there is a predictable imbalance that can be gainfully exploited by those who understand the rule.”
Here is a story to help understand the 80/20 concept:
HOW MANY START IN ROLLERS
George has an open breeder loft full of birds he has been given by friends, won at auction, bought over the internet, etc.
Each pair finds its own mate and begins to have offspring. Over time as George begins flying them. After several months, George sees some roll really deep, some roll very short and some don’t roll at all. Some have these really pretty colors that he likes and when they are old enough to mate, he throws them into the breeding loft to have babies.
After about 2 or 3 years, George is really happy with his birds; he has all kinds of colors and has 3 kit boxes full of rollers of various quality and colors. A few of his rollers are fun to watch and most are just average and he a few he wishes would fly away. Anyways, George is busy raising rollers and having a good time.
Then one day, this guy Brian (mentor to many and friend to all) through a mutual friend hears about this guy named George who has all kinds of rollers that wants to fly in competition but doesn’t know how to get started.
Now Brian being the all-round good guy that he is decides to take George under his “wing”. One Saturday morning he spends some time with George talking about rollers and what can be done with them.
George is amazed he has been doing it all wrong the past 2 or 3 years. He did not realize there was so much more he did not know. Being the humble man that he is, George asks Brian to help him to do it right.
Brian is happy and honored to help out. Brian asks George to fly each kit one at a time; Brian watches each kit with the eyes of a sky shark. He quickly identifies the best ones from each of the three kits. Brian instructs George to keep 15 to 20 of the birds he just watched in the air and put them into a kit box now to be called Team-A and get rid of the rest.
George can’t believe what he is hearing, but promises to do it. Brian offers to cull them on the spot but George with a little tear in his eye needs some time to say goodbye. Brian walks away toward the breeding loft rolling his eyes.
Once in the breeding loft Brian tells George to keep the parents of the birds in the A-Team and get rid of the rest. George is floored! What? These birds have pretty colors and some will even sit in my hand and let me feed them. Why some are virtually family pets…there is little Saddlesides, and there is Ol’ Smokey The Smoker, his rare color white bar…and that special one that one he paid $10,000 off the old 514415 stuff…
After the now famous “Saturday Morning Roller Massacull” heard round the Internet, George ended up eliminating about 75% of his birds. Now 2 years later, George is flying 1 above average kit and the other kit is showing promise. He also notices that a few of these kit birds seem to be better than the rest, remembering what Brian said, “keep the best, cull the rest”…he goes into action. Some years later George went on to win the next 10 World Cups and Fall Flys and with much pomp, fanfare and ceremony he was put into the All Time Super-Duper Universal Roller Breeder Hall of Fame.
THE END
MORAL
Brian never thought of the 80/20 Rule when he went into George’s backyard, but Brian’s instincts told him that he needed to find the few good ones and have George focus on only those and cull the rest.
Brian told George that “from now on you should not keep any birds that do not perform at least as well as the best ones in your kit. Anything less, you must cull it”. With this one bit of advice, Brian implanted the 80/20 Rule into George and his kits became better each and every year after that.
FINAL COMMENTS
A preponderance of your BEST results (performance) will always come from a smaller percentage of the action (breeding pairs) contributing to the inputs. Understanding and applying this concept will propel any breeding program to better results.
Again, this is NOT to say the other inputs (breeding pairs) are necessarily bad, actually THEY CAN BE VERY GOOD, it’s just that the VERY BEST will always come from a smaller number. The overall quality in this type of loft will increase year after year to the maximum level allowable by the gene-pool.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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fhtfire
586 posts
Oct 04, 2006
8:06 AM
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That is what I was trying to say...the 80/20 thing is just a baseline...not a set rule....or something you should really pay huge attention too..is is just showing a newbie...what to expect...which is...expect to cull a lot of birds because they will not make the cut...not just poor quality..but hawk attacks...rolldowns...ect...only a hand full of birds will be good enough....some will have the 90/10 rule or the 85/15 rule...the point is...it will never be the other way around and if it is....it is a very rare case. The % is MEANINGLESS>..is is just something to help you go by when you are new....I myself have never paid attention to my exact percentages overall.....I just pay attention to certain pairs and let the cream rise to the top....ok....I am done....
rock and ROLL
Paul
Last Edited by fhtfire on Oct 04, 2006 8:07 AM
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
789 posts
Oct 04, 2006
9:03 AM
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Let me repeat:
“The actual percentage is not what is important, only that there is a predictable imbalance that can be gainfully exploited by those who understand the rule.”
...Page 6 in HOW TO BREED BETTER ROLLERS available on this website.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
Last Edited by Tony Chavarria on Oct 04, 2006 9:08 AM
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
790 posts
Oct 04, 2006
9:42 AM
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Hey Velo, HALLELUJAH (angelic choir)
You pegged it! Once it is understood and applied as an “80/20 process”, you will quickly realize that the quantity of quality birds will increase; so much so that the number can go from:
a) 20% birds giving good results to
b) 50% birds giving good results to
c) 80% birds giving good results and so on…
Now here is what it might look like if you stepped back from the process at any given point in time and took a snapshot of the 80% birds today, 6 months or 2 years from now:
About 20% of this c) group birds give 80% of “best” results. It will not matter whose birds you look at or how good the entire family is, a smaller number of this c) group will tend to always be the “best” of “that group”. It will always tend to be an 80/20 ratio. ALWAYS. No matter the overall quality that is in the family.
Each year, when properly implemented, you will see the quality and quantity of your birds increase. If you do not, then you have reached the maximum genetic capability of that group/family of birds. Has anyone ever reached this with his family? That’s another topic…
Just all one needs to remember:
“The actual percentage is not what is important, only that there is a predictable imbalance that can be gainfully exploited by those who understand the rule.”
Page 6 in: HOW TO BREED BETTER ROLLERS ...available on this website.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
Last Edited by Tony Chavarria on Oct 04, 2006 9:45 AM
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Alohazona
193 posts
Oct 04, 2006
9:52 AM
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Tony,
Very well understood.I think it also needs to be said that it takes generally 3 to 5 years to go through the process,depending on the strain you concentrate on.During that time there is a predictable imbalance for the breeder/ trainer as well.GENERALLY SPEAKING,DOESN'T HAPPEN OVERNIGHT..Some will have beginners luck and then somehow complicate their program to have very mild sucess or none at all,[other factors apply:overflys,predators,theft].Some will fly decent kits most of the time,but they skyout or turn into flyers on club fly day.Some will be unable to focus,eventually give up,because they didn't have the time or help to fly a good kit.Thats what makes a forum like this a special place to come and get experience, from young and old,hardcore competitors, and backyard fanciers.Aloha,Todd
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Opinionated Blowhard
72 posts
Oct 04, 2006
11:40 AM
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Sounds like the 80-20 rule is not a rule. Its just a way of putting things in perspective. Business rules don't apply to genetics. Scientific rules apply to genetics.
Everyone can benefit from some perspective. But its not science. Kevin
Last Edited by Opinionated Blowhard on Oct 04, 2006 11:40 AM
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
791 posts
Oct 04, 2006
12:17 PM
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Hey Opinionated Blowhard, I disagree with your opinion about it not being science, I refer you to the following from Wikipedia:
Pareto Principle aka the 80/20 Rule
“The principle was suggested by management thinker Joseph M. Juran. It was named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who observed that 80% of income in Italy was received by 20% of the Italian population. The assumption is that most of the results in any situation are determined by a small number of causes. This idea is often applied to data such as sales figures: "20% of clients are responsible for 80% of sales volume."
Such a statement is TESTABLE, is likely to be approximately correct, and may be helpful in decision making. Richard Koch has written extensively on HOW TO APPLY THE PRINIPLE IN ALL WALKS OF LIFE”. (emphasis mine)
And:
“The Pareto principle has many applications in QUALITY CONTROL, and is the basis for the pareto chart, one of the key tools used in TOTAL QUALITY CONTROL and six sigma”. (emphasis mine)
=======
The 80/20 Rule DOES apply to rollers regardless of your opinion to the contrary. Do a Google search and you will see the many ways it can be used. It is probably only limited by your imagination and ability to see cause and effect?
By adopting the 80/20 Rule with our birds, it causes us to scan our birds for the best few likely to produce like attributes or better, i.e., more roll more velocity, more depth, more quality…
This principle gives us a “method” (any practice of a “method” IS science) to plug into the gene-pool and search for the best of and try to bring it out in more of our rollers.
In case anyone missed it: by using the 80/20 Rule as a method to improve your stock, you are performing science. For example the "breed best to best" mantra is to use the 80/20 Rule! (White Lab Coat is optional)
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
Last Edited by Tony Chavarria on Oct 04, 2006 1:35 PM
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George Ruiz
116 posts
Oct 04, 2006
2:01 PM
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Math has always been my worst subject so now I get a better understanding to the 80/20 rule Now that I think back 80% of the women I dated before I got married were not marriage material and around 20% percent probaly were (LOL).
hey guys check out my website @ freewebs.com/g1ruiz/
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
792 posts
Oct 04, 2006
2:07 PM
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Hey Todd, I won’t disagree with your time estimate. All your points’ amount to some controllable and uncontrollable variables and circumstances that will most definitely impact our end results.
As for fly day, we are mostly at the mercy of uncontrollable circumstances, change in fly time at last minute, weather, sky preds, judges…out birds, birds rolling down, landing early…can you name some more? LOL
With the advent of the Internet and the number of roller sites available, there is little reason not to succeed in rollers due to lack of information. I appreciate your past and current participation in the site and look forward to more.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
Last Edited by Tony Chavarria on Oct 04, 2006 2:09 PM
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Opinionated Blowhard
73 posts
Oct 04, 2006
9:51 PM
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OK Tony. So if I buy 5 pair of hot rollers from a pigeon peddler, mate them up and produce 18 roll downs, 1 non-performer and 1 ok roller that does not roll down, which 20 percent of the 5 pair of my breeders should I concentrate on?
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
793 posts
Oct 04, 2006
11:27 PM
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Hey Opinionated Blowhard, your question reminds me of something my wife would say to me: “now you’re just being stupid”! LOL
The 80/20 Rule works both ways! If you are getting a preponderance of roll-downs from this group of breeders then I would recommend culling the entire bunch. Who would be that misinformed in this age of the Internet with access to Roller-Pigeon.Com and other quality websites to believe that a roller family which produced that percentage of roll-downs is one to base a family on?
Have you read page 14 in HOW TO BREED BETTER ROLLERS? I recommend that you do and then restate your question if you still think you need to.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Bluesman
Pigeon Fancier
816 posts
Oct 05, 2006
2:09 AM
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I would reccomend getting Tony's book "How to breed Better Rollers" to anyone. I have read mine several times and still go back and check some of the info on ocassion.Having already been taught the 80/20 rule it was easy for me to understand what Tony was talking about in his book.David
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
741 posts
Oct 05, 2006
9:55 AM
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I have not yet read one solid example of how this 80/20 thing has any bearing on rollers beyond telling someone, or realizing that you are not going to raise as many good birds as you do shit ones.
Listen folks, if you want to breed better rollers, forget about percentages and ratios and focus on how to breed, fly and manage your rollers. If you are astute you will figure out what direction to go in order to "breed better rollers".
No offense Tony, and I know it wasn't you that brought this whole thing up, but if you were to question the most successful flyers right now, I'll bet ya you won't find, many, if any that use an 80/20 rule to get them to where they are today.
Breed Um, Fly Um, Make Decisions...or....80/20
Which of those two do you think tells a person how to breed better rollers?
Last Edited by MCCORMICKLOFTS on Oct 05, 2006 9:57 AM
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Opinionated Blowhard
75 posts
Oct 05, 2006
10:11 AM
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Thankyou Mr. McCormick. That is what I was trying to point out. In some lofts the percentage will be 1 percent keepers, 99 percent culls. In others it may be 30 percent keepers 70 percent culls. In most roller breeding I think the percentage is more like 10 percent keepers-40 percent that are ok for kit flying but not for breeding--50 percent culls.
If a man has a family that produces only 10 percent keepers then he will be making a mistake to think he has 20 percent keepers and breeding from the 20 percent.
also the higher your standards the lower the percentage of keepers. Kevin
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bman
62 posts
Oct 05, 2006
11:51 AM
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Brian,Kevin,
With all due respect I think if you delete the numbers
80/20 70/30 etc. from your posts everbody is talking about the same thing.Just a little of the glass is half full or half empty.It simply states that the best results come from only a small portion of your stock.Same reason everyone is trying to tighten there gene pool to capitalize on the smallest portion that has the greatest return.
Call what you will it still boils down to the same thing.
Just my opinion.
Ron
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Ron
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
796 posts
Oct 05, 2006
12:11 PM
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Hey Brian, none taken. I can see where this can be a difficult concept for some to grasp especially when I have already said in it that experienced breeders already do this intuitively. I can easily understand why you may not see the value of how it helps and why you seem to articulate some frustration with the thread.
You used the word “astute” in your previous post implying a person just knows by observing; this is what I mean when I say “intuitively”, it is something being done without being aware of it.
An experienced breeder has learned over the years that not every bird will necessarily demonstrate all the favorable traits he wants. He scans his birds in the nest, in the air, on the perch, looking for the “few” that will take him to the next level or whatever. Point is he usually only discovers he should be doing this only after a number of years in the hobby floundering with mediocre results.
One of the primary benefits of writing about the 80/20 Rule is the awareness it causes in the new person coming into the hobby who may think that all his birds are fine but who perhaps now will feel compelled to look for the “better” birds in his loft and kit boxes thereby speeding up his progress in developing his birds!
What pray tell could be wrong with this? It’s easy for me to get the impression from your post that success in rollers should somehow come only from absorbing enough pigeon ether and paying proper homage to the greats among us. Phooey on that!
Brian, the education has to start somewhere and with this method put into practice the newbie does not need to spend years spinning his wheels while becoming “astute”.
Also, one should read the entire publication and understand the context in which it is being said. I take about one and a half pages to explain it and refer to it throughout the publication along with other concepts.
I wonder how many having commented on this publication have even read it. Like doing a book review without reading the book! LOL
By the way, I’ll bet most of these successful flyers including you look at about 20% of their kit birds they are most impressed with most of the time! LOL
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
797 posts
Oct 05, 2006
12:13 PM
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Hey Kevin, by your last post I can see you have NO CLUE as to what I am talking about. I apologize to you for not being able to explain myself in simple enough terms for you to understand it.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
798 posts
Oct 05, 2006
12:16 PM
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Ron, HOME RUN! PASS GO! Kevin, maybe the way Ron put it will work for you! LOL
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
799 posts
Oct 05, 2006
12:24 PM
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After talking a few times with the author of a well known roller book, anytime someone introduces a new way of doing something with rollers they will be subjected to scrutiny and maybe even ridicule by the old guard.
Heck even Pensom himself was kicked out of the Pensom Roller Club! LOL LOL
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
746 posts
Oct 05, 2006
12:53 PM
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Tony, since nothing is certain in life, therefore all things can be judged under such a pretence as this rule. I personally don't care as I don't and wouldn't feel knowing that you will only raise a few good ones has any bearing on how a person should approaching learning about their birds. For the record, I don't get the majority of my performers from a certain percentage, I get them from nearly each of my 21 pairings, some produce better than others, but most every pair will give me an A team quality troop to use on comp day.
And I don't watch only 20 percent of my birds. I fly kits, not singles, therefore I watch my entire kits, especially any that are acting stupid. If I only got enjoyment out 20 percent of my performers (four birds in a 20 bird kit), I would go insane. Screw that...lol.
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Opinionated Blowhard
76 posts
Oct 05, 2006
1:22 PM
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No need to SHOUT tony. I also agree with Rons post. Where we disagree is that I see this as obvious. I dont see this as a bombshell insight. It seems to me to be straining to constrew a principal of economic efficiency into a roller breeding discovery. Of course the majority of benefits from breeding from any group of stock pigeons will be derived from a minority of the pairs--the best producers.
Speaking from my own experience I agree that in a stock loft of rollers from a variety of strains you will find that a few of the pairs will produce a greater number of useful offspring and some pairs will produce nothing useable. I agree that you can move forward faster if you remove the nonproductive pairs from the stock loft and breed more from the beter producers. Thats good theory and it makes logical sense.
But does this work in practice? In breeding from many pairs from several different strains of rollers over the last few years I have found repeatedley that many pairs will produce one really good youngster each year. There other youngsters will run the gamat from good to fair to lousy.
It is tempting to hang on to a pair for a few years if they have produced one really good youngster and try and breed another especially if a hawk takes the outstanding youngster. Usually the pair produces 1 more outstanding youngster each year sometimes 2. or they may skip a year and not produce a great one that year. But never 20 percent outstanding. More like 10 percent outstanding from 70 to 80 percent of the pairs. That makes 7 to 8 percent of all young produced. Kevin
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Velo99
632 posts
Oct 05, 2006
2:10 PM
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Kevin.
If I were getting 1 bird per pair worth stocking after four rounds, ten percent. Run one foster on the same pair and get twenty...
Then pick the top 20% and breed back to the parents...your program would get better.
I have set myself up two foster pairs for eack click pair. I have two now and am looking for number three this season. After that, I can breed 72 chicks in four months apply the one per season to these birds,three per pair due to the fosters. Gives me nine outstanding birds. Five short of the 20 percent. Add the number of keepers that are not stock quality but great kit birds and out of 72 I should get a kit of outstanding birds. Six above the 20 percent.
No one said it was a hard and fast 20 percent. It is simply a baseline and guidance tool for inexperienced and/or floundering breeders.I would hazard a guess If one were to do an experiment and go with exactly 20 percent it would work famously.
yits
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If they don`t kit,they don`t score.
Color don`t roll and peds don`t fly.
It`s a comp thing,understand?
V99
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
800 posts
Oct 05, 2006
2:25 PM
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Hey Vel, I could not have said it better myself. This is pretty much what I describe to do in HOW TO BREED BETTER ROLLERS. Good post.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
801 posts
Oct 05, 2006
2:40 PM
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Hey Kevin, you are proving my point. Remember, it does not need to be "20" percent. To the new guys starting out:
“The actual percentage (could be 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%...)is not what is important, only that there is a predictable imbalance that can be gainfully exploited by those who understand the rule.”
When you start to apply it, your overall quality (and percentages) in the loft will go up! Can someone out there give me an "AHA"!
Most of the new guys I speak to (and I do get a fair share of calls on a regular basis) have no idea of this concept and what it means to them in saving time, effort, grief and dollars.
The better family you start with, the higher level of quality you get to work with, but everyone gets to move to thier interpretation/understanding of the ideal Birmingham Roller and understanding the 80/20 Rule gives them a method or system in which to do it.
The better the system the better the results.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
802 posts
Oct 05, 2006
2:44 PM
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Hey Kevin, I never said it WAS a bombshell, just a tool for a new guy to use to help him succeed. LOL If you read HOW TO BREED BETTER ROLLERS you will see that it is just 1 concept among several to explain an approach that is useful.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
803 posts
Oct 05, 2006
2:52 PM
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Hey Brian, I am certainly not saying that only 4 or 5 birds in a kit can be any good. All 20 can be top notch world class spilling with the juice. But you got there by selecting your best birds and pairings to get there.
This would mean you focused on a smaller percentage of birds to get there. Now today you have a preponderance of good birds. You gainfully exploited the few to give you a high percentage of good birds.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
747 posts
Oct 05, 2006
3:17 PM
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Tony, I guess I am the exception to the assumed rule because I don't concentrate around a few click pairs, nor have I reduced the number of pairs that I breed from, honed specifically around pairs which produce at an exceptional level. I almost never put the same pair back together again, though there are a few exceptions. I breed from 6-8 pair from each family, along with a few test cross pairs just for grins. This past year I believe my total roller pairs were right around 25 including the test pairs. The matings have little to nothing to do with the percentage of offspring each bird has produced, but rather mental and performing qualities that I deem interesting enough to try for something even better, and in greater numbers should I be lucky enough to stumble upon such genetic gratitude. For me it has more to do with mindset and performance and trying to balance them with a suitable mate which has shown to lean in favor of producing a certain quality of mind, control, performance in order to find a competition-minded balance.
I try many different birds in the stock loft, many which are not the 'cream', but rather exhibit a pattern of one of the elements that contribute to both performance, chemistry and managability, and done solely with another bird in mind which I believe will be well suited for the other.
I view each potential bird as simply a component contributor. Some of the parents to birds I consider to be pretty hard core spinners were just average rollers at best and even today, probably wouldn't consider them in a special minority percentage of being the best.
There are a wealth of variables that can play out with each person's birds. It all depends on what you start with and how a person develops the knowledge of how to begin to experience satisfaction.
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Opinionated Blowhard
77 posts
Oct 05, 2006
3:24 PM
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Thanks Tony. I think we are in agreement now. I was thrown off by the first post from Mr. Ruiz where he asks "Do you believe the 80-20 rule" From what you say its not literaly 80-20 but can be variable. I suppose new fanciers may have trouble realizing that not all rollers are created equal as producers.
Thanks also to Kenny. My click pairs have never produced higher than about 2 champion-quality youngsters out of about 12 produced each year, with about another five that were reliable kit birds that rolled well but not champion caliber. Sometimes they are fast and tight but not frequent. Sometimes they are frquent but not fast and tight enough. Im using the term champion loosely here to distinguish from ordinary good performers. by my personal definition of champion, I breed only about 2 every 3 years out of about 120 young produced each year. I also think click pairs should be limited to pairs that produce more than about 60 percent really good spinners. By that definition I've had only a couple of click pairs over the years. Kevin
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
804 posts
Oct 05, 2006
3:43 PM
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Hey Brian, you are still practicing the 80/20 Rule, only you are using a different set of variables to move you in a direction you prefer to get the best rollers for your goals.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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