Missouri-Flyer
213 posts
Feb 08, 2007
4:43 PM
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I read in an old issue of the NBRC where the interviewer was asking several top fliers what their percentage was as far as good, quality birds breed during a year. Lets say you breed 50 birds a year, out of that 50, how many do you expect to be good quality, A team birds?..Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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Ballrollers
660 posts
Feb 08, 2007
4:59 PM
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Jerry,
Again, I say it depends on the quality of stock you were able to acquire to begin with, and the number of years a guy has been breeding. The first year of breeding for competition, I was elated to get one out of ten. I'm looking for 2 or 3, now! Maybe that's optimistic, but there are guys in my region, that have been at it awhile, who have tightened their gene pool and are producing much bigger numbers of quality birds.
YITS,
Cliff
Last Edited by on Feb 08, 2007 5:20 PM
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
1151 posts
Feb 08, 2007
4:59 PM
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15
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kcfirl
53 posts
Feb 08, 2007
5:01 PM
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the answer to this question has 2 variables: what is the quality of the birds currently in the A team, and what is the quality of the 50 birds produced.
If you have an A team comprosed of breeding 50 similar birds every year for the past 5, then we can assume there are about 4 birds from each of those years in the A team assuming each years production equal in quality.
If the 50 produced this year are just as good, then we can expect an even distribution for the 5 + 1 = 6 years of 50 birds each or 300 birds produced over the 6 years total.
If the A team has 20 birds, then 20/6 = 3.33. One would expect to put 3-4 birds into the A team from each years crop of 50 youngsters.
Scenario 1 - Now lets say that the A team also has losses. Some birds go into the stock pen, some are lost, either to hawks or overflies, or weather, given to friends, etc. If we assume that 2 birds a year are stocked, and another 5 per year are lost to other causes, then 7 birds per year are lost from the A team on average. That is 7 more birds that need to be added to the A team.
In summary then, I would estimate that about 10/50 birds prodcued each year would make it to the A team, under the above conditions. In reality, many experience losses much greater than this, and thus a higher percentage of birds from each years young make it to the A team by the following year after hatching.
So, the underlying issues affecting A team %'s have more to do with total A team losses and stocking and giving away, than the actual quality of the young produced. this remains true as long as we assume that the average quality of youngsters produced each year is similar.
Scenario - 2 If a guy stocked 3 birds a year, gave 4 away, and lost another 8 due to hawks, weather, overflies, etc. then that is 15 A team birds a year going away. Then one would expect to put 18 - 19 birds a year into the A team out of the 20.
This simple analysis shows that the key to developing an outstanding team has everything to do with holding on to the good birds, assuming that the average crop of birds produced are of good quality. The problem we have is that most of us are closer to scenario 2 than scenario one, and thus are forced into putting many more young birds(yearlings) than we would under ideal conditions.
Scenario 2 also leads us into producing more than 50 birds ayear for the sake of more young birds to choose from to replace old birds. I would venture to say that only those guys who hold onto their A teams can get away with breeding only 50 birds. I know that is what some of the top guys do. Otheres go the scenario 2 route and make up for it by breeding 100 or more, somtimes many more birds a year.
Go ahead and blast me now! LOL
Regards,
Ken Firl
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Missouri-Flyer
214 posts
Feb 08, 2007
5:12 PM
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Nice scenario Ken,
But I guess what I was asking was, out of the birds that are bred in "your" loft (anyone here), how many of those would you consider good quality birds? Forget the considerations for losses due to overflys, give aways, preds,etc. and just the birds that you were to breed and fly out....Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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nicksiders
1381 posts
Feb 08, 2007
6:23 PM
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Fifteen to twenty the first year with one to three eventually qualifying to be stocked in two to four years.
Each flyer is different. Some have tighter paramenters in thier evaluations. A lot of birds show potentional thier first years, but very few really certify to be champions or breeders after a couple of years. Not all champions become breeders and not all breeders are champions.
Nick
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Snicker Rollers
Last Edited by on Feb 09, 2007 6:52 AM
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kcfirl
54 posts
Feb 08, 2007
7:41 PM
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I get about 25% good solid kit birds with straight, fairly fast roll at least 15 ft and kit. I expect that number to double once I get the family tightened up a bit.
Ken Firl
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motherlodelofts
1422 posts
Feb 08, 2007
8:07 PM
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Not enough Jerry, but it keeps slightly improving , I might add that if I believed half the stuff I read in the NBRC or from non competitors that I might as well kill everything on the property.
With that said , I'm not happy unless they are "humming" flawlesly , such birds aren't bred by anyone in numbers.
Scott
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W@yne
255 posts
Feb 09, 2007
3:23 AM
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If i get 10 good kit birds from 50 young i would be happy at this moment in time. I look at breeding 1 champion bird out of 50 if I'm lucky. Champion birds are different than your good all rounder roller it is a bird that picks its self out when flying all the time and good enough to be picked out for a rose bowl in comps if it turns its self on form on fly day. A bird that you all want to grace yer stock lofts with you guys know what i am talking about sure would love to breed more of them.
Regards
W@yne uk
Last Edited by on Feb 09, 2007 3:26 AM
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Velo99
914 posts
Feb 09, 2007
5:10 AM
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I stocked one of 40 from 05. Kept 4 good ones in the kit. From 06 I will probably keep 15-16 out of 50.I have one or two I might stock.
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V99
Good spinners don`t always
make good breeders.
http://www.bluedotloft.50megs.com
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1113 posts
Feb 09, 2007
5:23 AM
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Jerry, my expectation is NO LESS than 80% will be quality rollers. The caveat is they must be bred tight and be of a quality gene-pool.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Bluesman
Pigeon Fancier
1011 posts
Feb 09, 2007
5:40 AM
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About 50% good Quality Kit birds.Another 20% fair to Good.Rest I usually cull for one reason or another. David
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bman
211 posts
Feb 09, 2007
7:28 AM
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Okay I am seeing anywhere form 10% to 80% from established breeders.
My question, is the difference in the family,experience or in there individual standards?-------
Ron
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kcfirl
55 posts
Feb 09, 2007
7:49 AM
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The differences are in what different guys consider quality roll. a guy like Scott Campbell has a different measuring stick for this than a guy just starting out or most backyard fliers.
Ken Firl
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bman
212 posts
Feb 09, 2007
8:06 AM
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Ken,
I agree with you but,looking down this post I don't see any beginners or backyarders.Still a pretty large spread in the percentages.?????????????
-------
Ron
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motherlodelofts
1423 posts
Feb 09, 2007
8:13 AM
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Ron, if I ever got 20 0/0 of what I consider truly good I would consider it a very fruitful year , probably closer to 15 0/0 or less , on top of that I'll get birds also that are worth keeping around just to see what they develope into.
Keep in mind I don't put much stock into birds in their first year , nor should anyone else.
What is still in the box late Spring of the following year is my gauge on how well the prior season was.
Scott
Last Edited by on Feb 09, 2007 8:32 AM
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W@yne
256 posts
Feb 09, 2007
8:15 AM
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I wish i could breed 80% wow thats some percentage guys you are talking about.
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1114 posts
Feb 09, 2007
8:32 AM
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If I wanted birds to spin on the head of a needle I would get 1%, if I want birds that spin with good quality, drop a good distance and have control of the roll and look good on the perch, then I get at least 80%.
It depends on the birds you have, where you are with your breeding program, how you recognize quality in your stock, select birds to keep, manage, understand your birds and see with the "3rd EYE".
Since not everyone has the same birds, the same experience, flys under same conditions, same goals, etc, you will get a wide variable in percentages. No mystery.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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kcfirl
57 posts
Feb 09, 2007
9:51 AM
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Ron,
did you read my first post about all the variables? Whether you hold onto the goods birds from year to year has a huge impact on how high the quality in the kitbox is and thus, the % you add from each year's crop of youngsters.
Also, I would classify most on this list way down the capability scale on forming an A team than guys like Scott and Joe U. Thus another factor to the distribution.
How many guys on this list have an A team with 50% of the birds 3 years old or older? I bet only a very few.
Ken
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1116 posts
Feb 09, 2007
9:58 AM
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"How many guys on this list have an A team with 50% of the birds 3 years old or older? I bet only a very few.
Ken"
How many need to?
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
1154 posts
Feb 09, 2007
10:24 AM
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Ken, is there a point to having birds older than three years old in the A team? Does having such establish that that particular flyer is more knowledgeable or has higher standards? At some points of the year I'll have numerous 2,3-4 and a couple of 5 year olds in my A team, but that don't mean squat when I often pull an older bird and replace it with a yearling that is kicking ass.
I'll take a kit of kick ass yearlings over a kit full of three year olds just for the sake of having old pigeons in a kit. And don't tell me three year olds are better, I'll put you in a chair at my house and shove reality right through your eyeballs...lol.
I'm with Scott, I want and wish for the most I can get, but every year the percentage is around 15-20 percent. I was thinking about that this morning as I was watching the B team which is all '06 birds. I figured five of them, on this morning, were solidly A team caliber. But the next few months will be the tale. By the end of April, whatever hasn't made the grade will be adios, and based on the last few weeks, that looks to be a lot of rollers.
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bman
213 posts
Feb 09, 2007
11:13 AM
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Everyone, thanks for the responses.
Ken, I flew from April 1st thru November 1st last year and than locked down.Still had 40% losses due to preds. If I get one to last three years it will be a miracle!
Those losses were all young birds,hopefully that percentage will decrease this year with the holdovers.
Thanks again
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Ron
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kcfirl
58 posts
Feb 09, 2007
1:01 PM
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Brian,
I think it means your birds keep performing as well or beter than yearlings once they get a bit older. That's all.
My list of the top three flyers in the world today is Heine Bijker, Don Oullette, and John Weins. They each do it their own way. Heine does it with mostly old birds, don with mostly younger birds. John I don't know.
The point is, if you are flying all young birds, then your percentage better be 40% or you don't stand a chance. If your birds hold up and keep performing through the years, and you can hold on to them, then older birds is the way to go.
Of course this assumes one prefers to breed fewer rollers to achieve the goal than more. I would rather breed 50 a year and do it than 200. Others may prefer to breed lots of birds.
Ken
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Missouri-Flyer
216 posts
Feb 09, 2007
1:17 PM
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Thanks for the replys guys.
The answers were what I expected, meaning some share the same answer. Myself, the past 3 years I have what I would consider quality birds raised at about 20%. As I gain knowledge and experience with my birds, I continue to believe that I am in the right direction.
Ken, I disagree with ur comment about Scott's expectations on quality being more or better than the average backyarder. I understand what your saying, but at the same time that sounds like you believe there are no quality backyard fliers out there. I have been to a few lofts of backyarders that choose not to fly comp, that have excellent kits, that if did choose to fly comp would be real contenders.
I have been a backyarder for 3 years trying to build my birds, and find out what does and doesnt work with my family of birds. This was going to be my first year to get out and compete, but no birds left to an overfly..I will be back next year with hoppefully birds from this year....
Tony, way to go with the quality and percentage....Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
1157 posts
Feb 09, 2007
1:18 PM
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I agree Ken, Ideally I would rather breed 50 youngsters a year than 150 or more, but I don't have such high percentages that would allow me to breed so few. I lose about 4-5 a month and now I am in the culling phases so in order to breed so few, I would have to exceptional pairs that produce 75 percent good un's for the A team. I don't have that luxury, nor do I know of anyone that does. My bet is that most of the guys who have been at the top for some times breed lots and lots of rollers each year and have been building and improving their A team as they go along. If they don't have to worry about losses, then once they get a good A and B team, one could back off on the number produced.
Brian.
Last Edited by on Feb 09, 2007 1:19 PM
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Missouri-Flyer
217 posts
Feb 09, 2007
1:22 PM
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Brian,
that is exactly what the subjects in this article were saying, that idealy they would like to breed from fewer, but are forced to breed lots of numbers to be able to pick and choose..Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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Shaun
448 posts
Feb 09, 2007
1:29 PM
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At least you're honest, Brian - your percentages do seem to conform, shall we say, to the industry standard. For a time, I was sorely disappointed to attain a mere 10% of decent rollers from nearly 70 bred. But, I remind myself, it was one big experiment with unproven breeders, albeit from a good line.
I think what surprised me was that the half dozen good ones have been light years ahead of the rest. I had imagined that there were would be a clearly defined, gradual ladder of ability, but this wasn't the case; the also-rans have been rubbish.
Shaun
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kcfirl
59 posts
Feb 09, 2007
2:04 PM
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Brian,
Heine breeds about 60 birds a year. Same for Jay Starley.
Main difference is that they lose few birds each year.
Ken
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1117 posts
Feb 09, 2007
2:57 PM
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Hey Jerry, there are several variables that I get to thinking about. Since I am a student of the 80/20 Rule and it’s implications for my Ruby Roller family, as well as the even more profound equation of 16x which is a mathematical formula derived from the 80/20 Rule, it has been my experience that a very high number of quality rollers can be produced.
For example, I breed a lot of rollers over a year’s time; I only keep a hand full for myself to keep my breeding program moving forward. Virtually every bird I ship out is one I wish I could keep, but obviously I cannot.
Of the young rollers I keep and “fly-out” to advance my breeding program, over 80% and higher are quality rollers, believe it or not. Most end-up being quality performers showing high marks for the Primary Traits I breed toward:
1. Roll
2. Velocity
3. Depth
4. Control
5. Type
I think it is reasonable to infer or suggest that due to my experience and results I get with the young birds I keep, those young birds shipped out to my clients, are going to be very high percentage birds as well provided they are properly managed, etc.
Now here is something that might ruffle some feathers but here goes: If people use the same old ways of thinking, then they will get the same old kinds of results.
When I am aware of it and if possible, I try to use “tried and true” business concepts related to producing the results I want: High numbers of quality rollers and 0 % tolerance for culls.
In my experience, the key is to properly understand and know how to implement the 80/20 Rule and not just the first part that suggests that only 20 out of 100 rollers you breed will be any good and the other 80 are culls. That’s the part Shaun appears to be referring to when he says “…your percentages do seem to conform, shall we say, to the industry standard. For a time, I was sorely disappointed to attain a mere 10% of decent rollers from nearly 70 bred”.
However, that’s the Readers Digest version if you stop there, there’s more to it. I talk about these ideas and concepts in my publication “How To Breed Better Rollers” which I first published in 2001.
Philosophically and in a practical sense, what I have done works for me. I am not going to argue over this issue or prove that you have to do something my way. It’s my plan to fly 2 kits in the upcoming World Cup and the local boys can come here and check for themselves.
Of course, Jerry, you won’t have to wait that long. As you know, we are waiting for a warm spell so I can get the birds conditioned so you and Larry R. can come over, have a cold drink and watch some birds fly.
=======
Let me add a bit more to this post to try and explain myself better if I can...When a family is line bred and selected with specific traits in mind, these traits become “set”, especially if you don’t bring in useless outcrosses and mongrels.
Now let’s say we are scoring 5 traits: Roll-Velocity-Depth-Control and Type. Let’s also say that we score these traits on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being poor and 5 being of near ideal quality.
A bird scoring a “3” in each category is a good quality bird, a “4” is a very high quality bird and finally a “5” is top quality bird approaching the ideal.
The larger percentage will be in the “3” range, a smaller number in the “4” range and finally still a smaller percentage scoring a 5. So the 80/20 pattern even holds up even when breeding from tightly bred stock. But it is not the whole story.
The “3’s and 4’s are going to be very good rollers and with proper breeding and management the fancier will get 5’s out of 3's and 4's.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Velo99
915 posts
Feb 09, 2007
3:26 PM
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Guys
Let me put it this way. I would like to breed birds every year that are good enough to make me cull all the previous years crop.
I think one could look at the number of birds one keeps yearly compared to how many they breed and make your own conclusions as to thier personal standards. However other factors can skew the conclusions.
jmho
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V99
Good spinners don`t always
make good breeders.
http://www.bluedotloft.50megs.com
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1118 posts
Feb 09, 2007
4:08 PM
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Hey Vel, sounds nice in theory and rolls off the tongue real good, but how many times has anyone actually done this? Don't answer, it's a rhetorical question.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Missouri-Flyer
219 posts
Feb 09, 2007
4:49 PM
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Tony,
Cold drink? Let me know what that will be and I will bring enough for all. I hope we get warmer weather soon, as I am sick of this like everyone. I have heat and 24 hour lighting to the breeders, but hate going out doing all the chores when it is 25.
I have bred roughly 35 to 4O birds a year the past 2 years so that doesnt leave me with many to cull after the preds, but I still iliminate the ones that dont work to my standards. This year I plan on raising between 75 and 1OO to see how my breeding practices are paying off. I have been happy so far with the holdovers I have....When the time comes,and ur birds are flight conditioned, let me know and I will work on coming down...You are welcome at my place after I get birds going AGAIN..Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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Ballrollers
661 posts
Feb 09, 2007
6:30 PM
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Brian,
You mentioned that come April, your B kit birds that don't make it to the A kit will be culled (to make room for the new recruits, I presume.) Do you dispose of those birds or let them go to other roller guys who aren't quite as far along with their breeding programs?
YITS,
Cliff
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cardo2s
2 posts
Feb 09, 2007
6:36 PM
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HEY TONY, YOUR TRIPPING /80%-RIGHT
ENJOY THE SITE /KEEP-UP THE GOOD JOB
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MCCORMICKLOFTS
1158 posts
Feb 09, 2007
9:57 PM
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They go to the gun club Cliff.
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1119 posts
Feb 10, 2007
2:58 AM
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Hey Cardo, thanks, glad you enjoy the site. You should re-read my posts in this thread though, I think you honed in on 80% and got stuck??
What I am saying IS that My VERY BEST is in the top few %, I know what I am saying can be difficult to grasp (it was for me at first) because it requires one to take what we “know” about rollers and percentages and put them aside and view them under a new paradigm or a different point of view.
What is commonly known about the 80/20 Rule is only the tip of the ice berg. The real secret is in learning how to “gainfully” exploit the rule. That’s the magic of it.
To begin appreciating it, think of the idea of exploiting the 80/20 rule as the difference between simple interest and compound interest in a savings account.
SIMPLE INTEREST
$10,000 at 10% per year for 10 years WITH SIMPLE INTEREST will produce $10,000 in profit for a total of $20,000, that’s the original $10,000 plus the interest earned over 10 years that is also $10,000.
There was a day when the average Joe, could only save money with simple interest, then someone thought to offer compound interest to the masses and the economy really took off and hasn’t looked back since!
COMPOUND INTEREST
$10,000 at 10% per year for 10 years COMPOUNDED ANNUALLY will produce $15,937.42 in profit for a TOTAL OF: $25,937.42!!. That over a $5,937.42 difference.
Same time frame, same dollars with a different result. That’s what is known as the “MAGIC of compound interest”.
Re-read my post number "1117". I did not say 80% were champions. Also, I have been breeding the same group of birds since 1993, that's 14 years to develop and establish the traits I want in my family.
In addition, if you can only get 20% of your birds worth keeping, then that suggests that the fancier plays no part in the development of the family and that it is all a numbers game and random roll of the genetic dice.
And if that's true, then the secret to succeeding in rollers is just breed enough, look for the 20% you like and do it the following year, year after year. We should see tons of guys with high quality rollers. Eventually everyone will have them without really trying.
HOWEVER, if the fancier IS A FACTOR in the process then that suggests that we can control the percentages and if that is the case, then we CAN INFLUENCE the percentage to increase!
If 20% is possible why not 30%?
If 30% is possible why not 40%?
You get the point I am making, 80% does not seem so far fetched now after all.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
Last Edited by on Feb 10, 2007 3:06 AM
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1120 posts
Feb 10, 2007
3:34 AM
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Hey Jerry, does that include adult beverages too?
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Shaun
452 posts
Feb 10, 2007
5:09 AM
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Tony, it does sound very good in theory. But there are many roller guys who have their own roller families off to a fine art, having developed them over very lengthy periods. Some of them are high-profile national and international roller champs. Many of them contribute to lists such as this. Yet, I've never seen anyone claim that each year they would expect to breed 'at least 80%' high quality rollers. But that, of course, doesn't mean you're wrong.
I do take your point about champion rollers - these are few and far between, so we're not looking at those. I would imagine from your described performance hierarchy for the majority of birds you produce, your 3s and 4s would be good, solid kit birds, under which a reasonable judge could stand and award points.
Seriously, if you breed at least 80% which conform to that criteria, then you have a goldmine and you should seriously be looking into the export market. The likes of George Mason overcame the necessary export hurdles, many years ago; he now sells his birds to all the major continents. Personally, I would love to try out some decent rollers from the good old US of A.
Shaun
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Missouri-Flyer
221 posts
Feb 10, 2007
5:20 AM
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Tony,
You name it, I bring it....Just hope you have a tent set up for those that cant make it home safely..LOL..Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1121 posts
Feb 10, 2007
5:28 AM
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Hey Shaun, I appreciate your understanding of what I meant in my previous posts. Just for the record, I am not diminishing the accomplishments of any breeder, quite the contrary, it does take strong belief in ones ideals, along with certain effort and commitment to be at the levels they have reached. I applaud that.
Like they have theirs, I have mine. Belief in the impossible is what makes the possible happen.
----------------
I have been literally approached by fanciers all over the world to get some of these birds. I do not know how to go about it. I just keep hitting a wall when I look into it. Any ideas I can use would be greatly appreciated.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Missouri-Flyer
223 posts
Feb 10, 2007
5:31 AM
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Tony,
Buy a boat!!..LOL
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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JMUrbon
228 posts
Feb 11, 2007
8:54 PM
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Tony, 80%. WOW. That is an amazing %. Myself I feel pretty blessed if I get 30-40 % good quality kit birds. On the other hand that % is much much less for the exceptional ones. I do have 3 and 4 year old birds in my kit but don't think for one minute that they wouldn't be gone in a second had there been a better young bird to replace them with. My standards are pretty high in regards to stock quality so that % is down below 1 % stock quality birds anually. Bear in mind I dont sell birds and I give very few away and I lock down for 3-4 monthes per year so the quantity of birds I breed is much less leaving room in my kits for the older birds. Joe Urbon
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J.M.Urbon Lofts
A Proven Family of Spinners
http://www.freewebs.com/jmurbonlofts/
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fhtfire
805 posts
Feb 11, 2007
10:32 PM
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If I breed 50 birds....I will usually get 20 or so Excellent birds...most of those will be out of one pair that I have that are "Click"....It really depends on what pairs I put together. SOme years are higher and some are lower...I have never culled a bird that would not roll good...I usually clear perch space ...and I cull on quality of the roll and consistency...then the slower birds...anyway....about 20 excellent birds that are A-team caliper birds.
Rock and ROLL
Paul
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1134 posts
Feb 12, 2007
2:02 AM
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I don't think I explained myself very well and it ain't going to get better than I already did it. Last time folks, listen up cause I'm done.
If someone breeds x percent that are sooo good as to replace the previous years "good" birds, either you have crap, and so improving year to year is easy?? or you don't appreciate the value of your current and past stock and know how to work with it to continue breeding good and excellent birds?
Just what is it that you improved from "last year" that was so far improved that it requires you replace last years good birds with this years?
If you have been working with a family that demonstrates a good gene-pool for a number of years and can't get good numbers, come here, I want to slap you!
Trust me, NO ONE is making that much progress in improving the roller EXCEPT in quantitites of quality of rollers.
"When it comes to the Birmingham Roller, quality in quantities: that's the last frontier"...Tony Chavarria
Monty was right, "watch your birds, you might learn something". Now THAT'S my opinion.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
Last Edited by on Feb 12, 2007 6:59 AM
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Velo99
922 posts
Feb 12, 2007
5:00 AM
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Tony,
One thought in response to your last post.
Right now I am still developing my breeding program. If I do happen to make the quantum leap with a couple of pairings,once my boxes are full of these birds will my percentages go up or down at this point?
Provided the proper performance characteristics are in place, I would think they would actually stay the same or close to it.The numbers of birds required to fill the gaps and still move forward would drop. Consequently I would breed less birds. Have less stress on my breeders and possibly allow them to produce even better birds.
jmho
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V99
Good spinners don`t always
make good breeders.
http://www.bluedotloft.50megs.com
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1135 posts
Feb 12, 2007
5:19 AM
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Vel, what do YOU think "quantum" means, define what YOU mean by that word and I can deliver a better response.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1136 posts
Feb 12, 2007
6:51 AM
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Okay Vel, here is how I would define “quantum leap” as it relates to this discussion…
The “quantum leap” is the change in the way you think about what you are doing, not unquestionably following the old mantras of the past we all know.
You want the same old results? Keep doing what’s always been done: Get rid of all last years “good birds” because this year “4” of them roll 1/8 or ¼ of a second longer than last years deep birds (would you really recognize it if they did?).
Ask yourself some questions:
Do you recognize a bird that likes to roll? Can he do it fast and for some distance? Can he stop at will? Does he have “Perch Presence”?
Start asking yourself some basic questions as to what IS a good to excellent bird to understand where you are at and how far you need to go.
In terms of inches or quarter inches (<---------->, <------->, <---->, <-->) what’s the difference between birds that roll like the following?:
><, X, H, (-)
What’s the actual inch, quarter inch or eight inch difference of a keel from long to short?:
----------, -----, --
How deep should the keel front to back be?
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What’s the actual quarter inch or eight inch difference of a secondary feather of a good bird?
----------, -----, --
How far do you want the tips of the tail feathers to extend past the primary feathers when in a normal position?
----------, -----, --
What’s the “tensile” strength difference of a “hard” feather or “soft” feather? How much wind pressure needs to be exerted on a hard or soft feather before they start to bend and destroy roll quality? How does velocity of roll impact tensile factor on your birds?
Do you want 1 and ½ tail feather or do you want 1 tail feather? Does it matter to the roll?
Do you want a bird that looks like it will kick you’re a$$ or a bird that looks like it wants it’s a$$ kicked?
Are the traits you want showing up in a preponderance of the youngsters you produce? If not, why not?
Historically, what outstanding families or specific birds have been used to build good stock? What color series did they represent? How do these colors vs rare colors compare as a whole one to another?
Why does it seem families of rollers tend to do better than hodge-podge breeding of assorted birds from different lofts?
Why does it seem some guys always restarting with some new family all the time?
Wierd ain't it?
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1137 posts
Feb 12, 2007
7:01 AM
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Vel, send me your mailing address, I will send you a copy of my book "How To Breed Better Rollers". Most of my philosophy and approach to what I do is in there.
I am working on a revised version to be released in the future, not sure when though.
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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Missouri-Flyer
235 posts
Feb 12, 2007
7:03 AM
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LMAO @ you Tony,
Your a hoot...Just what we talked about in person Saturday..LOL...Jerry
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Keep it simple and to the point. If it doesnt involve you, keep quiet.
Home of "Whispering Wings Loft"
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Tony Chavarria
Site Publisher
1138 posts
Feb 12, 2007
7:13 AM
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Hey Jerry, I think its the "3rd" Eye trying to tell us all something? LOL
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FLY ON! Tony Chavarria
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